FUEL SUPPLIES LINGER BUT FOR HOW LONG ?

SERIOUS PLANNING IS NEEDED TO CURTAIL SHORTAGES

Consider this, petrol is needed to power the family car that is used to drop off the kids at school. Petrol is also needed for the drive to work and the trip to the shopping centre. The supermarket where the weekly shopping is purchased relies on trucks that operate on diesel fuel. The fresh produce that originates from Australian farms and pastures also require diesel to make their vehicles work. Kerosene, otherwise known as jet fuel, powers the fleet of aircraft that transports us through the air to other cities for either business or tourism. In short, petroleum products are deeply embedded within our everyday lives because so much of what we do requires power derived from refined oil.

This may seem rather obvious. But we live within a society that has not accounted for the consistent demand of petroleum products in a serious manner. The International Energy Agency (IEA) requires member nations such as Australia to retain on hand 90 days of oil supply to protect against market disturbances, which likely includes sudden and severe supply disruption. The latest data provided by the IEA is for the month of February 2026. The data indicates that at that time, Australia had control of oil supply in the amount of 49 days.

That’s 49 days going forward, if refined oil imports cease to arrive at Australian ports. Which means the total amount of petroleum products available to power not only business, but the ordinary living activities of the people will not last two months.

Any crisis or catastrophe that exceeds this short timeframe of 49 days will reveal itself from day 50, which may swiftly become Day Zero of a much more serious affair.

Back in 2005, Australia had eight local refineries in operation. Today, the total number of oil refineries located within Australia is two. This includes the Viva Energy refinery situated in Geelong, Victoria. This refinery recently caught fire and will not be fully operational again until June 2026. The second production facility is the Ampol Lytton refinery situated in Brisbane, Queensland. This refinery remains online and working. When both refineries are working at capacity, they contribute a combined 20% to the Australian fuel diet. The other 80% is imported from countries like Singapore, South Korea, and China.

With local production capacity plummeting due to the closure of six onshore refineries within the past twenty years, Australia has since become heavily reliant on overseas nations to meet domestic fuel needs. Most of the crude oil extracted from Australian soil must be shipped overseas for processing and refinement. In the case of the Ampol Lytton refinery, this business exports around 75% of its crude oil, which is then refined into petrol, diesel, and kerosene, before it is shipped back to Australia for local consumption.

In case you missed it, this means that crude oil is sucked out of the ground in Australia and stored on an oil tanker, which then sails to Asia, where the oil is pumped into a refinery and processed into a useable product and commodity, before it is then re-pumped back onto the oil tanker or onto another vessel with similar capabilities, which then sails back to Australia for sale and distribution upon the domestic market. This round trip process takes 30 to 40 days.

Oil powers so much of our industrial and ordinary living activities that it requires treatment as a national priority. This means the “just-in-time” supply methodology which has so far been employed to satisfy local market demand must now be displaced in favour of a strategy that embraces increased in-country storage and expanded refinement capabilities that include beginning to end production facilities.