FRONTLINE RESHAPED AS KEY CITIES CHANGE HANDS

---

Seversk, Mirnograd, Pokrovsk, Hulyaipole | January 2026

---

Like knots on a piece of string, the vast frontline that bisects Ukraine consists of a series of key cities that interconnect and serve as critical Ukrainian military nodes. Within each city significant defensive fortifications have been constructed and these military positions are staffed with armed combatants.

Until very recently, running NE to SW, the frontline could be identified as consisting of Kupyansk, Lyman, Seversk, Kostyantynivka, Mirnograd, Pokrovsk, Hulyaipole, Orikhiv.

But this is no longer the case. The frontline has been significantly reshaped. Multiple fortress cities are no longer under Ukrainian control. And the momentum of battle is seemingly with the Russians who remain committed to the twin principles of demilitarisation and denazification.

After nearly four years of armed conflict, the fortress city of Seversk, recently situated on the frontline in the Donbass, and a longtime thorn in the Russian side, was finally overrun and is now under the administration of the Russians. Swiftly moving on from Seversk, the Russians are now fighting for control of the surrounding villages and countryside, thereby further securing the city through the establishment of a protective buffer zone.

The capture of Seversk removes a thorn from the Russian side that has stuck there since 2022. With old ghosts disappearing, a new presence of mind can take hold. If nearby Lyman falls to the Russians, which appears likely to occur soon, then an eastern approach towards Slovyansk will materialise. And if Russian forces continue to press on south of Kupyansk, the capture of Izyum becomes a realistic prospect. Izyum is perhaps the cornerstone for launching an offensive on the northern flank of Slovyansk.

---

Key cities under Russian administration (orange) | Image (base layer) | Google Maps

---

To the south of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk lies Kostyantynivka. Russian troops have entered this city from its southernmost tip and have established control over the main highway in the area. Should Kostyantynivka also come under the administration of the Russians, a southern approach to Kramatorsk and Slovyansk will also come into play.

The Slovyansk-Kramatorsk-Kostyantynivka agglomeration runs from north to south in the Donbass. These cities are fortified zones that interlink into a fully equipped Ukrainian defensive line. This rubicon was originally much longer but was shortened when the Russians overcame Toretsk and New York back in 2024.

West of this agglomeration, but still within the DPR, the sister cities of Pokrovsk and Mirnograd have now been entirely absorbed by the Russian offensive. Stiff Ukrainian resistance held out in Mirnograd for some additional weeks after the collapse of the Ukrainian campaign in Pokrovsk. Russian victories in Pokrovsk and Mirnograd mean that Russian troops can now move northward before turning to the east, possibly at Dobropillya and Oleksandrivka. The road heading east from each of these two villages leads directly to Kramatorsk.

As the reader can now see, a military cauldron of immense size is being constructed in increments and shaped to envelop the cities of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. Once the cauldron is in place, the two cities which remain significant Ukrainian defensive fortresses will be surrounded, before being isolated and cut off from resupply.

The frontline continues in jagged formation to the west, beyond the city of Pokrovsk and into the Zaporizhzhia region. Here, the Ukrainian stronghold of Hulyaipole has been overcome. Nearby, the other Ukrainian stronghold of Orikhiv is beginning to come under Russian assault. Should Orikhiv also fall, the move northward will likely become less difficult for the Russians until they reach the outskirts of Zaporizhzhia city.

---

END

---