AFTER UGLEDAR, A BOLD PUSH TO THE WEST?
THE BIG “Z” COMES INTO VIEW
Due to the recent liberation of Ugledar, a large contingent of Russian troops are now quite free to pursue new objectives. Ugledar had for ten years been a Ukrainian fortress settlement and was positioned on the Ukrainian defensive line in the DPR. Russian attempts to take this settlement had previously failed, however, with the application of a pincer movement, the Russians were able to establish full operational control.
Free from the burden of this particular struggle and battle, in the near future it is likely that Kurakhove, south of the Vovcha River reservoir, will also be taken during the Russian advance. It seems the Russians are already in the nearby settlement of Ostrivs’ke.
Due north from Ugledar, is the town of Selidove, in which the Russians are currently fighting to secure. Slightly further north is the larger town of Mirnograd and the city of Pokrovsk, a road and logistics hub. Pokrovsk accounts for significant coal production and also produces key inputs into the metallurgical process. The liberation of this city would critically diminish Ukrainian industrial capacity. It remains probable that both Pokrovsk and Mirnograd will transfer to Russian control by year end.
To the west of Ugledar, is the very large city and industrial centre, Zaporizhzhia. It may be that the Russians will soon seek to move in this direction, where they will eventually link up with forces currently stationed further south. Travelling west, between Ugledar and Zaporizhzhia, there appears to be very limited defence fortifications installed.
The current inability of the Ukrainian side to redeploy additional troops to the south and east may signal to the Russians that the next month or so is a time to push for a rapid advance. If this is undertaken, then by year end the Russians may well be positioned upon the outskirts of Zaporizhzhia, which they would no doubt welcome as suitable progress.
Lastly, irrespective of the pace of the special military operation, it remains likely that the Russians will continue to incrementally expand their zone of operation and control.
Punk Human 
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